Not wise to promise unemployment rate to drop to 12% - Half a million people in Serbia currently out of job

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has announced that the unemployment rate will drop to the European average of around 12% by the end of the government's mandate, but statisticians claim that it is not wise to give such projections years ahead.

– You can't, from the perspective of this moment, with a probability of 95% and more, say what will happen in the next three, four, five years – believes the director of the Statistical Office of Serbia, Miladin Kovacevic.

The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed citizens in the entire active population of a country. According to the data by the National Employment Service for the second quarter of 2016, there are around half a million people registered as unemployed, whereas the current unemployment rate is dropping and is around 16-17%.

– The active population is decreasing for demographic reasons and this is one of the causes of the drop of the unemployment rate itself, while the growth of the number of employees in the formal and informal sectors is another reason for the drop of the unemployment rate. As you've seen, the drop of the unemployment rate is pretty radical and, according to some experts, unexpected, since the growth of the GDP is not than intensive – Kovacevic says.

The number of jobs created by new investments is a dominant public issue, believes economist Stojan Stamenkovic and says that this is not good.

– When I look at the medium- or long-term validity of investments, the first question is how the investment will impact the increase in the dynamic of the GDP and not just its direct increase, but the indirect one as well, the inspiration and stimulation of other investments to go along with the development – Stamenkovic said.

Brain drain aside, experts warn that the drop of the unemployment rate in Serbia is possible only with the continual growth of the GDP and investments.

Vlada Republike Srbije

Republički zavod za statistiku

Government of Serbia

Aleksandar Vucic

unemployment in Serbia

Statistical Office

Miladin Kovacevic

unemployment rate

Stojan Stamenkovic

foreign investments

gross domestic product

GDP

brain drain