Arsic: Growth of Serbian Economy Slowed Down, Recession Possible if Situation in Ukraine Worsens

The Serbian economy is slowing down and, in the second half of this year, it could reach a growth of around 2%, which is twice as slow as the growth in the first half of the year, so the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 could amount to around 3%, but in case the situation regarding the war in Ukraine worsens, recession is not out of the question either, stated Milojko Arsic, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade and the editor-in-chief of Kvartalni Monitor.

– The economy is slowing down, and there are signals that this slowing down will considerably deepen during the second half of this year, which means that we will have a very slow growth in the second half of the year, and in case the international political situation worsens and the Ukrainian war escalates, a recession in the fourth quarter of this year is not out of the question either, including Serbia – Arsic said at the presentation of the new issue of said newsletter published by the Faculty of Economics.

As he specified, “the main projection, presuming that the international situation does not worsen considerably, is that, in the second half of the year, we could realize a growth of around 2%, considering that, in the first half of the year, we had a growth of 4%, so, on the level of the whole year, the GDP average would be 3%”.

According to him, signals of the economy slowing down are already visible, such as the drop of industrial production from April, a drop in construction, the slowing down of the growth of investments and private consumption, as well as the drop of the real value of income due to the high inflation.

He said that Serbia also had problems with the production of electricity, caused by errors and unprofessional management, and that there was also the drought, which had affected the agriculture and thereby additionally slowed down the growth.

Arsic pointed out that the biggest problem in Serbia was the high inflation.

Ekonomski fakultet Beograd

Elektroprivreda Srbije ad Beograd

JP Srbijagas Novi Sad

Milojko Arsić

Kvartalni monitor

growth of gross domestic product

GDP growth

war in Ukraine

recession

inflation

drought

energy prices